DL + AA? No way....

OK, I've refrained from commenting on the AA bankruptcy, but a set of news reports came out today that have spurred me into the need to issue some armchair analysis....

In the Wall Street Journal and also the Atlanta Constitution Journal, news came out today indicating that both TPG and Delta were said to be evaluating bids for AA.

Time will tell, but in short, this is probably the most anti-competitive idea to float in the US airline industry since.... well, ever.

It would effectively allow the #1 and #2 airlines to carve up far too many markets to pass muster with the DOJ.

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First of all, this is probably way premature. AA still has the right to come up with their own plan, and probably will continue to do so for some time. The minimum timeframe a company can be given to come up with a Plan of Reorganization is 120 days, which will be coming up in February. But that's just the minimum. Given the complexity of the case, I'd be shocked if the court didn't grant extensions for AMR to come up with a plan. If fact, I'd fully expect that based on how full the docket is, AMR will likely get to run out the clock on the maximum 18 months allowed under the 2005 bankruptcy changes.

Only then will someone like TPG or DL be allowed to make a standalone bid.


Second, I had no doubt the guys in Atlanta would be looking at every option once AMR filed, including asset acquisitions like they did with Pan Am. I'd also been expecting to see TPG surface at some point. In fact, I'd commented to more than a few people over the two years prior to AA's filing that I half expected a pre-packaged filing with TPG's backing.


Until the clock truly runs out on the exclusivity period, it's all speculation, and fun speculation for some at that, unless of course, you work for AMR...

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Now... With all that and my usual disclaimers (link to the right) fully referenced....

I see a move by DL to be nothing more than just hype.

There are dozens of reasons I could go into... and I probably will look at a half-dozen or so over time, but the first one that jumps off the page is the resulting networks.

I see no possible scenario that allows a merger of AA into DL to pass muster with the DOJ, or to even be practical, absent a serious downsizing of AA's current operation. With the exception of AA's hubs at DFW and LAX, there's just way too much overlap.

Let's start in the lower right hand corner of the map... While ATL & MIA are distinct domestic markets, once you start looking at international coverage, there are very few markets from MIA where AA is that DL isn't also serving from ATL, and vice versa.

And that's just the Southeast. Let's move up to the Midwest. Same situation, but amplified.

As in "None more loud... our amps go up to 11."

DL already has significant hubs in MSP & DTW. Is it really practical to have a third hub almost smack dab in the middle of that? Are there any international locations served from DTW or MSP that aren't also served by AA from ORD?...

Think that's it? Nope. Let's float a couple hundred miles down the Mississippi from MSP.

Within a 360 mile radius of Peoria, IL (hardly the center of the US, but...), you'd have three major hubs, but also three former hubs which still have significant presence from AA or DL -- STL, CVG, and MEM.

Certainly, having four hubs and focus cities in former steamboat markets has to be enough, right?

Hardly. We haven't even addressed DC or NYC...

At JFK, clearly, a combined AA/DL would dwarf the competition, and account for some 25% of the available terminals, and probably a little bit more than that in terms of ASMs. It's the only move DL could make to truly be able to trump UA's EWR hub, but is that really necessary?

I'll admit, I've been wrong a few times before with my predictions, but on this one, I'm pretty certain that even the most liberal interpretation at the DOJ would negate most of the "benefits" you'd see from allowing the #1 carrier to absorb the #3 carrier...

At a minimum, I'd see the DOJ requiring AA to forfeit **all** of its slots at JFK, DCA, and LGA, and realistically, something would likely have to give to deal with all the overlap at MIA/ATL and ORD/DTW/MSP plus STL/CVG/MEM.

If DL's merger with NW is an indicator, that says massive layoffs and cutbacks in ORD, which also conveniently cedes that market to UA. Given MIA's expense vs. ATL, I can see a huge shift there as well, and yes, I'd expect UA to jump all over that, too.

I have to admit, that this is the only deal I've heard of which makes a US/AA deal sound, well, reasonable. And I've got serious doubts about that one as well, but that's an essay I've chosen to avoid.

As I said earlier, time will tell. And I suspect we're going to have a long time to wait to hear this one firm up.

Cars strike stopped train... and drivers blame the railroad?

On Monday, there was a somewhat freakish accident in Chicago, where two cars struck a stopped train.

Yes, a stopped train.  Normally, it's a train striking cars or people.  Not this time.

You can read the Sun-Times version of the story here, but while I'm all for giving drivers the benefit of the doubt, the facts are really starting to stack up in the railroad's favor...

1) The railroad had logged the signals as inoperative prior to the accident (source: Sun-Times)

2) The train crew told first responders that flares were in place at the time the train was cleared to cross thru the grade crossing (that would also be evident at the scene, so lying about it would be futile, right?...) (source: Sun-Times)

3) Under Illinois law, once the train safely enters a crossing (protected or not), it has the right of way, and vehicle traffic is to stop at least 15 feet from the tracks (source: Rules of the Road, 1982)

4) FRA rules require that when automatic signals are inoperative, and a railroad provided flagman or local law enforcement are not present, "each train must stop and a member of the train crew must dismount the locomotive and flag highway traffic to a stop before the train occupies the crossing." (source: FRA Signal Crossing Safety Manual)

5) GCOR Section 6.32 (http://www.sdrm.org/faqs/rulebook/movement.html#6.32) states that "When a train has been notified that automatic warning devices are not operating properly, the train must not occupy the crossing until vehicular traffic is clear of the crossing." (source: GCOR)

You'll note that nowhere is it required that a flare be lit, or that a flagman remain present until a train clears the crossing.

So, I'm not sure what else the railroad was supposed to do under the circumstances. They complied with all of the applicable laws, guidelines and even best practices.


So let's focus some attention on the drivers...

1) The posted speed limit is 35 mph (source: I'm guessing based on the nature of the street)

2) The driver of one of the cars also stated he was going 35 mph when he hit the brakes (source: Sun-Times)

3) Normal stopping distance at 40 mph ranges between 120-200 feet, depending on dry or wet pavement (source: various stopping charts on the web)

4) City of Chicago streetlights are usually spaced 80 feet apart, and on both sides of the street (source: personal experience & Google Earth measurements...)

5) Google Earth and Google Streetview imagery of the accident scene clearly shows light poles spaced every 80 feet on both sides of the intersection (source: Google Earth)

6) The poles immediately north and south of the tracks are 50 and 60 feet from the track centerline (source: Google Earth)

7) That amount of lighting would not only forward-light, but also back-light the train (source: my assumption)

8) That amount of lighting should also be reflected off the FRA mandated yellow safety striping on the railcars (source: my assumption)


As I said, I'm all for giving people the benefit of the doubt, but they were unable to see a stopped train from 200 feet away with adequate street lighting.

The only reasonable explanations for that are that they were distracted from concentrating on the road ahead of them, be it conversation, texting, or talking to their passenger or on the phone.

Time will tell and the FRA will no doubt release its report by the time the 2012 elections are decided. Maybe sooner if we're lucky...

Illinois backtracking on "Free Rides for Seniors"

From the title of the blog, I do try to write about more than just flying.  Today, it's mass transportation in general, but there is a rail twist to it as well...

Back in 2008, former Governor Rod "Name Your Price" Blagojevich came up with the idea of offering all senior citizens, regardless of income, free rides on all state funded mass transit systems... Sounds great, except that the State of Illinois is essentially broke, and this is an unfunded mandate.  Shocking, I know, but since then,  transit agencies across the state have taken a noticeable financial hit due to the program.

This was really well intended -- allowing seniors on a fixed income to be able to benefit from all the years they paid into the system.  And I do understand and agree with that concept.  Unfortunately, the law was poorly worded, and as often happens, people quickly found ways to game the system to their advantage.

I ride Metra commuter rail several times a week from the Northwest Suburbs into downtown Chicago.  Some of the lines go thru extremely affluent areas, like Barrington, Lake Forest, Glencoe, and Winnetka.  And it's not uncommon for people living in those areas (bankers, lawyers, executives) to work past 65.  From experience, I've seen guys earning six figure salaries using the free rides program.

If you figure perhaps 500 people who were otherwise buying monthly passes at about $150 each, you wind up with close to $1M per year in ticket revenue which is no longer being collected.

That's not chump change, and I suspect that the numbers of people using the program are indeed far higher than that.

Fortunately, the Illinois House of Representatives has finally taken action -- last night, they voted 95-15 to limit the free rides program to low income seniors only. The current thresholds are $28K for a single household and $37K for a two person household...

As the Illinois Senate has previously tried to limit the program in similar fashion, hopefully this will become law.  Stay tuned....

Continental BusinessFirst... a comparison against AA and others

This month, I had a chance to fly on Continental, which is not one of my regular picks... I had a last minute trip to GRU, and more or less was priced out of flying on DL, UA, and AA by a pretty wide margin. Knowing budgets were tight because it was the end of the yea, I decided to take one for the team and go cheap...

Domestically, CO's business class is pretty good.  Meals and service levels were on par with what I'd experienced with UA and AA, as was the seat.  The only serious downside was the lack of seat power.  I'm spoiled by AA in this regard (especially now that they're putting "normal" 110v plugs on the new 737s, instead of the 12V cigarette plugs found on all the rest of their domestic fleet).  On a two hour flight, I didn't need it, but on a longer haul or if I had a short connection, it would become a significant downer, at least to me...

Internationally, CO's business class pales in comparison.  On the positive, the menu was as good as I've had with AA in the past year, and CO gets high marks for their flight attendants.  Totally different vibe than I've seen on AA or other North American carriers in a long time, and that was from all four crews I came in contact with.  And they did offer seat power, but unfortunately it was the 4-pin Empower 12V plug, which I no longer carry.  At least with AA's 12V plug, I can use the inverter from my Jeep.  No such luck with the 12V Empower jack.

On the downside...

CO's seating on the 762 is the pits.  I felt like I was sitting in a Laz-Y-Boy recliner.  Seatback reclined only about 50 degrees, and the legrest was pretty useless for someone of my height.  I never thought I'd find something worse than IB and AA's not-quite-flat seats, but I did.  But it gets better:  when the person in front of me reclined their seat, it actually came in contact with my tray table as I was eating.  There's nothing grosser than having the back of someone else's head about 6" from your food.

Entertainment options were also a step into a time machine.  Unlike other airlines who have moved to "on-demand" programming, CO is still using looping tape technology.  That means 24 options on a 2.5hr cycle.  Don't like your movie, or miss the beginning of a movie you wanted to see?  You get to wait until the 2.5hr cycle restarts.  That means on a 10 hour flight, you will see a maximum of three movies, regardless of their length...  By comparison, I've seen as many as five on a 9 hour flight when flying IB...

While things like service and menu will always be seen differently by different people, flaws like those in CO's hard product are much harder to overcome.  Good service won't negate an uncomfortable seat.  A good meal doesn't offset the remaining 8 hours of a flight.

Conclusion.... I'd probably try CO again for a short flight, but not for anything over three hours.  How this gets addressed in the UA/CO merger is yet to be seen, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for it changing before the end of 2011.

Trip Report: ORD-EWR-GRU on CO in BusinessFirst

I just returned from Sao Paulo for the first time, and flew on Continental.  I'll be releasing pieces of my trip report over the next couple days, and will be breaking it down into four parts... domestic and international inflight, airport experience, and lounges.

Earlier this week, I had an opportunity to participate in an "Operation Lifesaver" presentation with the Union Pacific Railroad.  For those who aren't familiar with the program, OLS was created by railroads over 25 years ago to create public awareness around grade crossing safety, and reduce fatalities, injuries, and damage caused by collisions between trains, road vehicles and pedestrians.

While many presentations are done in auditoriums, classrooms, and meeting rooms, the presentations this week were a little different -- the UP brought up a business train and did presentations on several of their lines in the Chicago area.

My train was leaving from the downtown Chicago passenger terminal, and was sitting on Track 6 -- one of the two longest in the station, and historically, used for the predecessor trains which ran jointly on the CNW & UP between Chicago and California. A standard freight locomotive was on the head, followed by CNW liveried UP1995 SD70ACe, chair dome "Colombine", chair car "Salina", diner dome "City of Portland", business car "Cheyenne" , Boy Scouts liveried UP2010, and another freight road locomotive at the rear.

Yes, for those of you counting, that was four locomotives for four passenger cars, and otherwise a bit excessive, but I'll explain that in a second....

Full bio's on the various cars are on the Union Pacific website, and most were built in the 1950's.

Yes, I'll admit I'm a rail fan and have been for most of my life.  I've lived along the Harvard Subdivision for over half my life, but had never actually been to Harvard on the train, much less in a classic dome car from the 1950's.  So this was both an educational and a fun thing to be doing for me.

Why the extra engines?  History, and the CNW being somewhat unique.

There are three subdivisions on the UP which host commuter service -- Harvard, Kenosha, and Geneva.  For whatever reason, the Harvard and Kenosha subdivisions use a system called ATS (Automatic Train Stop), and the Geneva sub doesn't.  This requires specially equipped leading and trailing cars (a primary reason why locomotives on the UPRR aren't swapped out with those on other Metra lines).  While ATS equipped locomotives can go just about anywhere, the reverse is not true, and neither the BSA or CNW liveried engines had ATS equipment. So, for this day's operation, two locomotives from the local pool equipped with ATS were required.


With that much power, we had no problems getting up to 70 mph and staying there for most of the trip, slowing only for Mayfair, Deval, and the station stops.  Not too surprisingly, it was a much smoother ride than Metra.  The UPRR has a fleet of about 40 passenger cars that they maintain for PR and company business, and they're kept in top notch condition. Even the upholstery used on the seats was vintage.  In the dome car "Colombine", the upholstery had "UP" embroidered in green and gold.

I must admit, riding in a real dome car is a great way to watch McHenry County fly by.  We stopped briefly in Harvard where box lunches provided by the UPRR were passed around, and the train crew changed cabs.   Not exactly the gourmet menu that was posted on the wall, but still a fine way to watch the world go by...

It was really fun pulling into stations along the way -- you could see some serious looks of confusion amongst those in their 20's, looks of delight from the kids and those in their 50's and older.  And yes, a few people tried to get a free ride into Chicago but were turned away.  Somehow, word was out about the run because I saw a lot of tripods set up along the route as well.

From a timing standpoint, the run on this line was a bit ironic.  The previous week, one of my son's classmates committed suicide by stepping in front of an inbound Metra train on this very line.  While OLS has contributed greatly to improving accidental deaths, there's no awareness program which is going to prevent "Metracide" from occurring.  As much as the schools have tried to promote hotlines, peer groups, and other methods of support for teens in crisis, they won't stop someone truly determined.  The best we can hope for is educating kids early about the impact this has on the train crews.  They're helpless to do anything except blow the horn and call the authorities.  They're also usually the first responder at the scene, which can be pretty gruesome... While suicide in itself is a selfish act, perhaps knowing the impact this particular method has on innocent bystanders might make them think twice...

From an infrastructure standpoint, grade separation is the best solution for preventing collisions between trains and vehicles or pedestrians. That comes at a significant cost and disruption as well, but until that's completed, we'll always have a need for Operation Lifesaver and similar awareness programs.

For more information, visit http://www.oli.org/">Operation Lifesaver on the web.

New Old Address

Years ago (1997, when the internet was still young), I'd registered Olesen.com but in 1999 allowed my dad's business to use it for their marketing. He sold the business last year, and now that the rebranding is done, the new owners decided it was time to retire the website. Fortunately, they gave enough notice that I was able to reclaim it before the registration lapsed, and it is now back in my hands...

It will take a few days for DNS and Google to redirect, but you can now access these pages at http://olesen.com instead of the Blogger.com address so update your RSS and bookmarks.